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The best question this year

‍How cool is this?

On Tuesday an eight-year-old named Molly filled out the “Ask Barefoot” form on my website:

“My parents won’t allow me to buy shares, and it makes me feel so sad. Please help me! Molly”

‍How cool is this?

On Tuesday an eight-year-old named Molly filled out the “Ask Barefoot” form on my website:

“My parents won’t allow me to buy shares, and it makes me feel so sad. Please help me! Molly”

Molly could’ve been on Roblox. Or Netflix. Instead she’s on my website, asking about money.

(Under annual income she wrote: $100.)

Well Molly, you’ve shot to the top of my pile. By the end of this not only will you own your first shares… you and I will have taught your parents a lesson that changes their lives.

Here’s the thing about Mum and Dad. They’re probably a bit scared of the share market. Most adults are. Nobody taught them this at school, so it feels risky and confusing.

Your mission is to teach them… tonight, over dinner.

First, print off the 2026 Vanguard Index Chart. Google it. It’s free, and it’s the ‘Mona Lisa’ of money.

While you eat your broccoli, ask your parents:

“How old were you two 30 years ago?”

Chances are they were about your age.

Now show them the chart. It tracks what $10,000 in 1996 would be worth today if you’d invested it in different things.

Left in cash it becomes $32,459.

Put into Aussie shares, it becomes $132,931.

The difference? A hundred grand!

“But what if we invest and it crashes like your uncle Derrick is always warning about?” they’ll ask.

Great question. Let’s play a game.

Imagine you’re the unluckiest investor in the country. Vanguard actually ran the numbers on this.

You invest $10,000 into a mix of local and global index funds … right before the dot-com crash.

Another $10,000 … right before the Global Financial Crisis.

And the last $10,000 … right before Covid hits.

Every time, you buy at the absolute peak. Thirty grand at the three worst moments in a generation.

So how did you do?

Today it’s worth $117,000.

Yet if you kept it in cash it would only be worth $54,000.

(And let’s be honest, most of that cash would have disappeared on holidays, renovations, and “just this once” spending.)

The worst-timed investor in Australia still doubled the one who “played it safe”.

Yes, things went wrong. Covid. Dot-com. The GFC. Uncle Derrick will keep warning you about the next disaster until the day he dies. The trick is to look at what quietly went right.

You’ve done three things. You taught your parents something. You learned the best way to learn anything… by teaching it. And you flicked on the most powerful force in the universe: compound interest.

Google “Aussie investing apps for kids”, then get your parents to download one and buy some shares (called index funds) for you. You can start with as little as $5. And remind your parents they can invest some of their money too! Why should you have all the fun?

Before you ask to leave the table, ask one last question to make your parents squirm.

“How old will you be in 30 years?”

You’ll be 38, Molly. Wealthy. And only just getting started.

Your parents?

They’ll be pushing 70… still wondering if they should have started earlier.

The truth?

This was never a column about an eight-year-old.

It’s about you.

The one reading this on your phone, or in the paper, or while you’re meant to be doing something else. You’ve got the chart. You’ve got the proof. You’ve got an eight-year-old who’s already braver than most adults.

So what the hell are you waiting for?

Tread Your Own Path!

 

Your Questions & Answers

  • Paralysed with Fear

  • The $5 Million Accountant


Paralysed with Fear

Hi Scott,

I’m 42 years old. Two years ago my husband left, giving me 100% care of our two kids. We're immigrants with no family here. I was never allowed to handle our finances. Any question made him angry, as if I were attacking him. He earned $300k a year but still ran up $53k in credit card debt.

After the settlement I received around $400k. I stared at that number for months, paralysed. Then I read your book and put it into high-yield accounts. I now work part-time on a low wage, with single-parent tax benefits. My super is only $13k. His child support covers the rent on our one-bedroom unit. It's getting small as the kids grow, but they're in a great school and we've finally found community and belonging. I won't pull them out to save money.

I sit on the cash, because if the child support stops we have no way to survive. My only plan B is to buy a studio, so we have a roof. That means nothing for super, nothing for shares. Am I okay or am I crazy to just sit on it until the kids are old enough to be financially independent adults? It is about 25 years left for my 3 years old to be able to take care of himself.

Indra

 

Hi Indra,

You are not crazy.

You’re a single mum in a foreign land with no family and no backstop. You’ve suffered financial abuse and betrayal. So you chose safety for you and your kids. That makes complete sense to me.

Yet here’s the thing I want you to see. He’s still controlling you. You’re squeezing your family into a one-bedroom unit and sitting on $400,000 of your own money because you’re scared of what he might do.

Screw him.

That money is yours. Spend some of it on renting a place that actually fits your family. It doesn’t need to be flash, but it does need to be big enough that you live comfortably.

If you were my sister, here’s what I’d tell you.

Get yourself so damned secure you’re bulletproof.

You don’t have to solve the next 25 years today. Just take the next step.

For the next few years, your best return will come from investing in yourself. Get a qualification or training that moves you into higher-paid work.

I know what you’re thinking. As a single working parent there aren’t enough hours in the day. So use some of the money to buy time. A babysitter or a cleaner. Free yourself up to focus on building your career.

While you’re at it, sort out your super and make sure you have income protection, disability and life cover through the fund. Your super is the one thing that’s just for you. And you don’t have to carry the kids until they’re 28. Eighteen is enough.

Do this and in a few years your income will be growing. You’ll be able to buy a home of your own. And you’ll have the financial safety you need.

Indra, you may doubt that you can do this.

I have no doubts whatsoever.

You know why?

Because I see a woman with grit whose kids are in a great school, in a community where they belong. You did that.

Your kids are watching. They’re getting a masterclass in grit from the strongest person they know.

That’s the real inheritance.

You’ve got this.


The $5 Million Accountant

Scott,

My dad spent a lifetime building an accountancy practice and delivering sage, safe advice. When he sold his practice he was going through the emotional upheaval of retirement, but he didn't talk it out with a counsellor. Instead he got hooked by a highly sophisticated crypto scam, with a legit-appearing front.

He has handed over in excess of $5 million to them (details are not clear, he is very unwilling to divulge). This would be the proceeds from selling his business, and devastatingly, his house. 

We thought he was out of it. He told us that he had received a sum back, and that he would secure his accommodation, but he's just started (again) asking for money. He thinks that a few thousandthousands would get him his money back. The whole family has urged him to report to the authorities and file for bankruptcy. I think he is too deeply in denial, as he's continuing to insist that he is not bankrupt.

Kate

 

Hi Kate,

That is absolutely horrific.

I’m so sorry this happened to your dad.

You said that your dad received a “sum back”. That’s the equivalent of a $1 pokie machine ‘winning’ 10 cents: they’ve already stolen $5 million from him. They won’t stop until he goes bankrupt. Even then they’ll keep going trying to squeeze the last few bucks out of him. I’ve seen them steal the insurance payout from a terminal brain cancer patient.

These people are evil.

More than 80% of Australians received at least one scam attempt in the last year, according to the ABS.

They’re so prevalent that we all know someone who’s lost money. Yet it’s not just the money that gets lost. People get robbed of their sense of self worth … and they often lose their will to live. 

Your father needs proper support and counselling right now, and more than ever. The money is gone. What matters is that he’s still here. That’s the one thing left to protect.

The only way you can defeat evil is with unconditional love.

Thanks for reading,

Scott.

Read More

A Boy Worth Fighting For

We were somewhere over Malaysia, wedged into economy with four kids, when the fighting started.

It was hot. It was cramped. And the chicken satay I’d wolfed down in Singapore was staging a violent protest somewhere south of my belt buckle.

“Just shut up, the lot of you”, I thundered.

‍We were somewhere over Malaysia, wedged into economy with four kids, when the fighting started.

It was hot. It was cramped. And the chicken satay I’d wolfed down in Singapore was staging a violent protest somewhere south of my belt buckle.

“Just shut up, the lot of you”, I thundered.

My five-year-old burst into tears. “Daddy said the F-word!”

“Shut up is not an F-word”, I protested.

“We don’t speak like that in our house”, he sobbed, like he was reading me my rights.

Liz just glared at me.

We were on our way to Cambodia. I figured the trip would teach my kids a thing or two about how good they’ve got it back home.

Little did I know the biggest lesson was waiting for me.

But it wasn’t some big temple or ancient ruin that did the teaching. It started three months before we even landed in the country.

A mother gave birth to a little baby boy.

She placed him in a plastic bag. Then she tied it shut and, for reasons only she will ever know, tossed him onto a rubbish pile to die.

Yet he wouldn’t die.

This tiny baby, only a few days old, no bigger than a footy, screamed through the plastic and the garbage until a rice farmer walking past heard him.

Now, this farmer had nothing. Dirt floor, hungry kids of his own, crops that barely fed his family. But he still took that baby home, and he and his wife fed him and held him for three weeks, until they simply couldn’t anymore.

So they carried him to a hospital and prayed someone could give him the life they couldn’t.

That someone was Geraldine Cox, an Aussie expat in her eighties who has spent the last 33 years running Sunrise Cambodia, an orphanage for kids nobody else wants. The kids call her Big Mumma.

My wife did a story on the place years ago for the 7pm Project and has sponsored a kid ever since. When we said we were coming, Geraldine invited us out.

As we arrived, my kids bolted off to play soccer with the Sunrise kids. Geraldine showed us around.

Walking into the nursery, I noticed a woman cradling a little baby.

I looked closer. The baby was staring straight at me.

‍It was the little baby in the bag.

His nickname is Sok, which means strong in Khmer. (Sunrise later gave him a proper name, which for his privacy I won’t share.)

And he is strong. He’s a fighter. After all, by rights, he shouldn’t be here. There is no trace of his parents. No birth certificate. No record he was ever born. No past for this boy in a bag.

So what becomes of him? What’s his story going to be?

That his mother wanted him dead?

No.

His story will be that, amid all the cruelty of this world, there are kind, caring people everywhere.

Like that dirt-poor farmer who pulled him out with his bare hands.

Like Big Mumma.

Like me.

And like you.

I’ve made a donation to help cover Sok’s costs, which are around eight grand a year (Sunrise gets no government funding – it all comes from donors).

Look, everyone has a lot of bills, too much work, and not enough time. But if you’ve got a Give Jar, consider sending a few dollars to Sunrise Cambodia. It’s tax deductible, and you can ask them to direct it towards Sok if you like. Every dollar makes a real difference.

You see, one day Sok will learn his story. But it won’t just be about a plastic bag. It will be about thousands of ordinary people on the other side of the world who decided this little fighter was worth fighting for.

Here’s the link: www.sunrisecambodia.org.au/donate

Tread Your Own Path!

 

Your Questions & Answers

  • Billionaire’s WARNING: I’m SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! 

  • My Heartbroken Son


Billionaire’s WARNING: I’m SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!

Hi Scott,

I’d love your thoughts on billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham’s interview on Diary of a CEO this week. He reckons you should get out of US stocks and into emerging markets and bonds. He manages $78 billion, so he seems to know a thing or two, and his arguments sound logical. Is it time to move my super and share portfolio out of Aussie and US index funds? I’m 42 and want the best bang for my buck over the next 20 to 30 years.

James

 

Hey James,

I watched the interview ... and felt kind of dirty by the end of it.

Grantham believes the US market is wildly overvalued, crypto is mostly worthless, and the AI boom smells a lot like the dot-com bubble wearing a chatbot costume. I agree with a fair bit of what he says.

So why did I feel dirty?

Years ago I put a ring on my share portfolio. I made a vow to stick with it through the good times and the bad. History shows shares deliver the best long-term returns of all investments, even though they scare the living daylights out of you sometimes.

Every crash has eventually been followed by new highs. So I keep a few months’ cash in the bank and accept that happily ever after only exists in fairy tales. 

Good investments (like good marriages) go sideways sometimes. Stick around long enough and they compound into something that changes your life.

That podcast felt like the financial version of a married bloke on Tinder. The whole thing is designed to make you restless and think “Maybe I should ditch my boring old index funds for some sexy emerging markets”. Heck, the episode is literally called: “Billionaire’s WARNING: I’m SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!”

That’s a rubbish way to invest your money.

You don’t throw away a solid relationship because some hot selfie on the internet looks like a better trade. You remember why you committed in the first place.

Now, Grantham might be right. The market could crash next week. But to make money from that, you’ve got to be right twice. First, you’ve got to sell before everyone else. Then you’ve got to decide when the coast is clear and buy back in.

Even Grantham has struggled with this. He’s been calling the US market a bubble since 2021. Meanwhile the market has climbed over 100 percent higher.

James, at 42 you’ve got your greatest advantage: time. Decades of pay packets ahead of you. Every market wobble is a chance for those dollars to buy more shares and compound.

My advice?

Stay married to your diversified share portfolio. Keep some cash aside so a crash never forces you to sell. And stay off the spicy dating apps.


My Heartbroken Son

Scott,

My 20-year-old son signed a 12-month lease with his high school girlfriend, against my gentle judgment. Four months in, she broke up with him via text as he drove to work at 6am. Now she’s out looking at new rentals, and he’s left with $600-a-week rent he can’t possibly afford on a part-time student’s wage. I’m offering support and advice, but he’s reluctant to act. Short of handing over cash, what’s the best way to help my son through this?

Concerned Mum

 

Hey Concerned Mum,

Right now your son is heartbroken. Humiliated. And broke.

He’s also 20.

Which makes this the cheapest life lesson he’ll ever buy ... but only if you let him buy it.

So here’s my advice, and you probably won't like it: Don't fix it for him.

Don’t hand over cash. And definitely don’t move him back into his childhood bedroom. That teaches him that whenever adult life kicks him in the guts Mum will always make it better.

The truth is he’s in a stronger spot than he realises. His ex is still legally on that lease, text-message break-up or not. Her name is stuck there, same as his.

That gives him three options: they break the lease together (in this market it might only sting for a few weeks’ rent plus advertising), they find a new tenant to take over, or he gets a mate to move in and cover her share.

Your job isn’t to rescue him. It’s to point him at the tools. Tell him to ring the tenants’ union in your state (it’s free). Warn him not to go quiet and stop paying the rent, or he’ll end up on a tenancy blacklist that follows him for years.

Then step back and let the learning begin.

One day, in 15 years’ time, he’ll be telling this story at a barbecue. You’re deciding right now how that story ends: the time he sorted out his own mess at 20, or the time Mum rode in and saved him.

Thanks for reading,

Scott.

Read More

Why I invested in Elon Musk's SpaceX

I just invested in the most overvalued piece of junk going around:

Elon’s latest trillion-dollar trouser-tickler, SpaceX.

I didn’t have a choice. My index fund bought it for me. Automatically.

I just invested in the most overvalued piece of junk going around:

Elon’s latest trillion-dollar trouser-tickler, SpaceX.

I didn’t have a choice. My index fund bought it for me. Automatically.

Because that’s what index funds do. They buy a tiny slice of the biggest companies, and SpaceX just elbowed its way into the club.

And ... I really don’t care.

Now, you may think old Barefoot has foot fungus.

After all, the media has been warning us of the impending DANGER:

“Elon Musk is about to change everything we know about the world of finance in a move experts say will expose millions of Aussies to a new level of risk.”

“Experts warn we’re entering ‘dangerous, dangerous territory’ as the potential concentration of wealth could impact 17 million Aussies.”

“SpaceX risks leaving index fund investors with heavy losses.”

So. Much. Clickbait.

Honestly, I’m so tired of every bloody article being lipsticked with urgency, fear and stress.

So, calmly, the question you want to know is this:

Am I an idiot for investing in a simple, low-cost index fund that buys SpaceX just because it’s a certain size, without even thinking about how much of a stinker this investment could be?

After all, the company lost almost $US5 billion last year. In the first three months of this year alone, it burned through another $US4.3 billion.

That’s the boring numbers stuff buried at the back of the prospectus that only weirdos like me read.

The cool stuff is all the phallic full-page pictures of rockets, and their ballsy aim of the “establishment of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants”.

Men are from Mars. Elon is from Uranus.

Now, here’s the bit the headlines forget to mention.

I called Vanguard and asked them what proportion SpaceX would make up of my international index fund.

“We expect it to make up somewhere around 0.06 to 0.08% of the index”, they said.

Let’s put that in perspective.

If you have $1,000 invested in an international index fund, your holding in SpaceX comes to:

60 cents.

Sixty.

Cents.

That’s what all the fuss is about.

Yes, SpaceX looks wildly expensive. Yes, AI is being hyped to the heavens. But my index fund owns more than a thousand companies alongside SpaceX and automatically trims the losers.

You know what I love more than spaceships?

Beating the experts who feed the media these headlines.

The annual SPIVA report scores every active fund manager in Australia against the index. Last year, 74% of them lost to it. Over fifteen years, 87% lost to an index fund. Nearly nine in ten.

The people screaming loudest about the danger of index funds all want the same thing:

Your money. Don’t give it to them.

If SpaceX blows up, I lose sixty cents. I’m comfortable with that trade.

Tread Your Own Path!

 

Your Questions & Answers

  • I Live With a Man I No Longer Love 

  • I’m Panicking!

  • The Latest Barefoot Scam


I Live With a Man I No Longer Love

Hi Scott,

I live with a man I no longer love. I stay because he has an autoimmune disease from a tick bite nine years ago. He hasn’t worked in 12 years. He tried day trading from home, failed, and now runs a fridge magnet business with a mate. He earns less than $18,000 a year. I pay the mortgage, the bills, the food, the clothing, and some of his medication.

He is mean, lazy and rude most of the time. I read your book, set up my accounts, and built real wealth. I’ve got $200k left on the mortgage of a house I bought without him (because he told me property was a bad idea). I have also got well over $1 million in super. He also told me contributing to super was dumb because it locked up my money.

Now a lawyer tells me he could walk away with more than 50% of everything I built. I don’t know what to do. So I stay? I’m 55 years old. Am I really going to walk away with only half of what I created?

Wendy

 

Hi Wendy,

It sounds like you’ve already made your mind up.

You just haven’t packed your bags and walked out the door, yet.

Now you’re writing to me, a finance guy, asking for permission to leave him.

Well, fair enough:

“You have permission.”

Look, there’s a reason you’re in a strong financial position, and he isn’t:

You did everything right. He sounds like he was a bozo (even before the tick).

Now you’ve seen the family lawyer and it sounds like they have said his ongoing illness and lack of income will be a factor in your separation.

And if that’s the price of financial success, I’d gladly pay it.

Why?

Because there’s honour in having looked after someone who has been a significant person in your life, who can’t fend for himself. That’s hard to accept for sure. But, Wendy, you’ve been doing this for years. At least this draws a line around it.

Yet, most importantly, because that money buys you your freedom.

You have 25 years of good living ahead of you to find someone you do love. You have a good amount in super, a nearly paid off home, and enough saved to spend six weeks in Europe with your friends. It’s not like you’ll be starting over. I’d call that a hell of a head start.

Tick. Tick. Tick.


I’m Panicking!

Hi Scott,

I’m a single mum to my 13-year-old son. After years of struggling, I found your book, followed the steps, saved a $50,000 deposit – and have just finally landed a great new job earning $119,000 a year. I got pre-approved last week and had an offer accepted on a $700,000 freestanding house. But when I stared down the barrel of the $4,200 monthly repayments I panicked. It left almost nothing to actually live on. So, I called the agent and pulled my offer. I’ve now set a hard ceiling of $650,000 to drop my repayments to $3,700 a month, which feels safer. Here’s my dilemma: The market is softening slightly, but I’m terrified of my deposit just sitting there. Do I keep hunting for a cheaper house, or do I rent for another year and keep saving?

Rina

 

Hi Rina,

I’m sitting here on the farm reading your question when a Luke Combs song came on. Growin’ Up and Gettin’ Old.

The killer line: “I ain’t lost a step, I just look before I take ’em."

That’s you. That’s exactly what you just did. You’re a smart, successful single mother who values safety and security for her son more than being talked into a transaction by a mortgage broker and a real estate agent chasing their commissions.

My advice?

Keep renting. Keep saving. And keep looking. The right place will come up soon enough.

And when it does, you’ll know.


The Latest Barefoot Scam

Hi Scott

A post from you popped up on my Facebook, with an offer of seeing your watchlist of US shares to buy.

I’ll admit I was taken in by it, especially that the poster was “Scott Pape”. It does look very professional, and even mentions your Order Of Australia medal!  However, it involved going into a WhatsApp group, which is obviously a scam. Just thought I’d let you know.

Bruce

Hey Bruce,

Yes, it’s a scam.

(My barber Benny is absolutely furious at how the scammers have depicted my hair. My personal trainer Shane, however, is very pleased with the forearms.)

The scammers are using AI to churn out hundreds of these ads, reposting them faster than I can round them up while sitting at the farm swearing at my sheepdog Lucky.

So here’s the tip:

Social media profits from these ads. So I quit posting on socials entirely.

If you see a post from me, know this:

It’s not me.

Thanks for reading.

Scott.

Read More
Investing (shares) Scott Pape Investing (shares) Scott Pape

The next crash is coming

You wake up and check your phone. The markets have opened, and your super is down 25%.

You wake up and check your phone. The markets have opened, and your super is down 25%.

$125,000 gone. Just like that.

What do you do?

I get asked this question constantly, dressed up in different apocalypse scenarios. The US defaults on its debts. A global recession hits. China invades Taiwan. The AI bubble bursts. 

Truthfully?

Every investor has their own disaster movie playing in their head. 

The problem is you’ve created a story … and it’s almost certainly wrong.

I know this because every story I’ve created has been wrong too:

I was convinced Trump’s 18% tariffs would skewer the world’s largest economy.  

Didn’t happen. 

I thought AI was overhyped by Silicon Valley grifters and would crash. 

Hasn’t happened (yet).

So, faced with all this doubt and fear, how do I continue staying in stocks?

Well, my secret to investing is the same as my marriage: 

Low expectations and permanent paranoia.

I expect the share market to deliver around 7% after inflation over the long term. Nothing more. 

I stay away from whatever Wall Street is selling (like private credit) and stick to index funds.

Finally, I keep years of living expenses in cash and fixed interest (yes, it reduces my returns, but it lets me sleep at night).

Now back to your nightmare where your super has evaporated.

What do you think you would do faced with that news?

Your answer to this question tells you everything about whether your portfolio is right for you, or a disaster waiting to happen.

Does it make you want to panic and sell? 

If so, panic early. Talk to your super fund about reducing your exposure to the markets.

Does it make you want to buy more shares on the cheap? 

Then you likely need more cash sitting ready to pounce when it happens.

Look, the crash will come. It always does. The key to sleeping soundly is to open your eyes and live through it today.

Tread Your Own Path!

Read More
Crash, Investing (shares) Scott Pape Crash, Investing (shares) Scott Pape

What I’m doing with my money

It’s 5am. 

I’m at the farm, sitting here at the kitchen table, staring at my screen …  and watching the US stock market get absolutely hammered. It has plummeted close to 5% since I went to bed last night, in response to Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.

It’s 5am. 

I’m at the farm, sitting here at the kitchen table, staring at my screen …  and watching the US stock market get absolutely hammered. It has plummeted close to 5% since I went to bed last night, in response to Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.

Journalists and media pundits absolutely live for days like this. There are so many ‘bloodbath’ headlines. So much clickbait casserole. So much ‘breaking news’. 

And every article is saying pretty much the same thing: Trump’s tariff plan is stupid. That it will plunge the US economy into a deep recession. That it will have devastating impacts around the world.

Scared yet?

Look, it makes total sense that you may be thinking to yourself:

“This is a really uncertain time to be investing. None of this sounds good. Maybe I should just sell my shares and move my super to cash until this clears up.”

Well, let’s talk about that.

I have a coffee in my hand. The kids are still asleep. It’s just you and me. Today I’m going to tell you what I plan on doing with my own money. But, before I do, let me give you my take on the Trump tariffs.

First, this is not meant to be sound (or sane) economic policy – it’s a negotiating strategy. Trump views the world in terms of winning and losing, and he wants every country on earth to lose, so that he (and America … but mostly he) wins.

Second, and even more importantly, he’s just told every American that the global system is rigged, and that America is being unfairly treated. 

Now, I don’t think that’s true. In fact, since World War II, free trade has lifted more people out of poverty than at any other time in history. Yet facts don’t matter. 

Besides, this line of argument gives Trump someone to blame when the economy tanks: he had the guts to stand up to the global bullies – it’s their fault, not his.

Third — and let’s be honest, most predictably — he’s keeping the world’s attention glued to him like a toddler with a tambourine.

So, back to you.

You’ll hear people say that now is a very ‘uncertain time’ to be an investor.

Yeah, nah.

The truth is that it is always an uncertain time to risk your money. If you think it’s safe, you’re simply not paying attention. However, what history teaches us is this: the price you pay for earning long-term life changing compound gains is having to stomach short-term uncertainty.

And here’s the thing about trying to protect yourself in the share market: you don’t just have to be right once – you have to be right twice. First, you’ve got to guess when the market will fall further. Then you’ve got to guess the exact moment to jump back in. And spoiler alert: no one rings a bell when it’s safe to invest again. (Just ask the people still waiting to buy back in after the Covid crash.)

So what should you do instead?

Simple. My advice hasn’t changed since I wrote The Barefoot Investor.

If you’ve got a home loan, focus on boosting your super contributions to 15% and pay off your mortgage like your future depends on it – because it does. That’s the plan. Boring? Maybe. But it works.

Then, in the final three years before you retire – whatever age that is for you – consider getting your super fund to invest your future employer contributions in cash. The goal is to build up a buffer of three to five years’ worth of living expenses (after any pension payments you may receive), so when the market drops you don’t have to stress or sell. You’ve got time on your side.

As for me? I’ve paid off the home loan. So every month – rain, hail, or full-blown Trump tantrum – I throw money into three low-cost index funds. The louder the noise, the cheaper the shares.

Tread Your Own Path!

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Investing (shares), Crash Scott Pape Investing (shares), Crash Scott Pape

How Low Can My Shares Go?

Hi Scott,

I stupidly put $9,000 into shares before Trump, when prices were high, but now they’ve gone backwards! Yikes! I haven’t sold them (yet), but I’m just wondering how low can they go?

Hi Scott,

I stupidly put $9,000 into shares before Trump, when prices were high, but now they’ve gone backwards! Yikes! I haven’t sold them (yet), but I’m just wondering how low can they go? Obviously these tariffs and trade wars are biting, but will it end? And how can we tell when the lowest point is reached? And will it ever recover?

Helen


Hi Helen, How low can your shares go? Well, my back-of-the-envelope calculations say that you’re down about … $700. Boo. Bloody. Hoo. Helen.

Seriously, if you’ve going to invest, you should be prepared for your shares to (temporarily) be cut in half. 

It’s happened before! 

Yet here’s the key: the market has always bounced back, and then gone higher. And that is why we invest: it’s because the share market really is the greatest wealth-building tool in history … but only if you allow your money to keep compounding.  So, here’s your three-step survival guide:

First, only invest in index funds with money you don’t need for at least five years.

Second, have enough Mojo – cash in a savings account – so you can sleep at night and not panic sell.

Finally, be like me – only check your shares once or twice a year. You’ll be much happier and wealthier for it.

Scott

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Crash, Investing (shares) Scott Pape Crash, Investing (shares) Scott Pape

Markets Crashing

“Grab your dressing gowns … we’re going on a magical mystery farm field trip”, I announced to the kids.

“Grab your dressing gowns … we’re going on a magical mystery farm field trip”, I announced to the kids.

Their little eyes lit up as we trekked out of the house, through the gate, past our rapidly evaporating dam, and down to our 200,000-litre rainwater tank.

“How much water is in our tank?” I asked the kids.

My eldest started knocking the side of the tank – and found it was as hollow as Albo’s re-election pitch.

“It’s practically empty!” he gasped.

“Exactly!” I cried.

And so, with my little troops lined up in their jimjams, I went into full ‘Drill Sergeant Dad’ mode:

“And do you know what that means?” I said, eyeballing each of them.

“No flushing the toilet anymore?” giggled my four-year-old.

“No, that’s disgusting! It means that, until we get a good rain, you’re all sharing a bath!” I said sternly.

End of field trip.

Welcome to life on the farm.

“Farmers in Western Victoria grapple with the worst drought conditions in almost two decades”, said a headline from the ABC last week.

Uh-huh.

The article continued:

“BOM senior meteorologist Zhi-Weng Chua isn't seeing any drought-ending rain in the forecast.”

What a … BOM-mer!

Yet hang on a minute, how does the Bureau of Meteorology know what the weather will do in a month’s time?

They don’t!

And this is exactly like the share market right now.

“Aussies super in freefall because of Trump” …

Fortunes lost in blink of an eye” 

 

“Markets are in crisis today as Donald Trump’s reign sparks terror across America. And we might not be able to escape the fallout” …

… screamed the headlines this week.


Holy Hector!

Yet another, way less exciting, way of writing that headline would be:

“Stocks have fallen to levels not seen since …  last August.” 

I know, I know, I’m hitting you with the sensible stick. And the question you really want to know is … is this the start of a much bigger Trump slump that will actually see your super in freefall?

Well, the honest answer is that I have no idea. However, what I do know is that the world has faced much bigger threats than Trumpty Dumpty and his untrusty sidekick the Muskrat:

Like World War I, World War II, the Great Depression, the Spanish flu, the Vietnam War, the Korean War, the Holden Captiva, the Global Financial Crisis, Covid. 

And, throughout all that, since 1900, the Aussie share market has had 101 ‘up’ years and 24 ‘down’ years.

When you look at the yearly returns over that time, what stands out is there weren’t that many years where there were thumping gains, or wipeout losses. 

So, predictably, the clickbait headlines are dead wrong: ‘freefalls’ simply don’t come around very often. Instead, most years are pretty boring – averaging around 10%–20% gains.

Put another way, if you chipped $1 into the share market in 1900 you’d unfortunately be dead by now. However, your great-grandkids would be able to buy a (semi) decent joint in Sydney: that buck would have grown to $4.2 million.

Okay, so that’s the history. Yet we live in the here and now, where sophisticated algorithms are programmed to scare us so we devote the best years of our lives staring at their overlords’ ads.

Well, here are my best tips for surviving this market drought:

Many years ago I sold all my individual shareholdings and moved to low-cost index funds, and then deleted the ‘Stocks’ app on my phone to stop me from doom scrolling share prices throughout the day.

It worked. 

Here’s the irony, though: over the past couple of months I’m ashamed to admit that I’ve been checking the BOM app at least five times a day. So this week I deleted it.

After all, do I have any control over when it will rain next?

No!

(Okay, sure the thought of doing a naked rain dance in the middle of the paddock crosses my mind every so often, but on the whole I’m much happier not having the lack of rain a constant depressing reminder in my pocket.) 

Besides, am I so stressed out that I would actually consider selling the farm?

Hell no!

Truth is, I see my share portfolio exactly the same way I see the farm: 

I don’t really care about the price of my farm, only the bumper crop of dividends that the land delivers me each and every year. That’s why, in addition to automating my regular share purchases, I now rarely check my portfolio of index funds, and I am much happier for it. 

So that’s my first tip: don’t check share prices. Just don’t.

Second, don’t listen to forecasters (as Judge Judy once quipped: “Don’t pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining!”). 

Finally, understand that this downturn will not last. 

Know that it never lasts. 

In fact, what history does show is that the larger the downturn, the higher the future returns. Or, in other words: don’t throw your babies out with the bathwater.

Tread Your Own Path!

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Can you trust AI to research investments?

Love your work! Do you have any advice on using Microsoft AI Copilot for investing?

Hi Scott,

Love your work! Do you have any advice on using Microsoft AI Copilot for investing? I asked it two related questions about AI-chip maker Nvidia’s biggest drawdown in 2018 and got two different answers:

"What was Nvidia’s biggest percentage drawdown in 2018?" → Copilot said -30.82%.
"What was Nvidia’s biggest percentage drawdown in one year?" → Copilot said -50.26% (also in 2018)

This inconsistency has shaken my faith in using AI for information to help me invest better. Thoughts?

Darren


Muchas Gracias Senor Darren!

You’ve perfectly demonstrated why I don’t take financial advice from AI. (And it’s not just Microsoft, I just asked Lucy the same question, and she came back with “a fall of 57%” …  which is also wrong).

Still, some of the smartest minds are pouring millions into building AI models to outsmart other investors and squeeze out profits. Today, short-term algorithmic trading now dominates the stock market, with bots executing thousands of micro-trades for razor-thin gains—far faster than any human can react.

And that’s partly why I ditched stock picking and stuck with trusted long-term low cost indexing—because beating AI at its own game is a losing battle.

Yet here’s my question to you:

How does knowing what Nvidia did in 2018 help you make a buck in 2025?

It doesn’t.

Scott.

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Investing (shares), Kids and money Scott Pape Investing (shares), Kids and money Scott Pape

An 11-Year-Old With a BIG Problem

I’m 11 years old and I’m trying to invest, but I’m having a problem. Every investing app I try has monthly fees up to $10 a month! Can you please help give me some advice on how to find the right investing app.

Hi Scott,

I’m 11 years old and I’m trying to invest, but I’m having a problem. Every investing app I try has monthly fees up to $10 a month! Can you please help give me some advice on how to find the right investing app.

Emery


Hi Emery

Mate, this is a very impressive ‘problem’ for an 11-year-old to have!

Most kids your age are picking their noses or gambling on Roblox, but you’re not just considering investing, you’re asking the right questions too!

Yes, fees suck, especially when you’re only investing small amounts.

So, here’s what I want you to do:

First, figure out how much you plan on investing. Maybe it’s $100 to start with, then $50 a month.

Then I want you to google the following apps: Pearler Micro, Vanguard (accounts for kids), Raiz and CommSec Pocket, and work out how much each of these apps would cost in fees to invest in a high-growth shares option.

Finally, show your workings to your parents – I’m sure they’ll be impressed. Then ask them to cover your fees for the first year!

Remember, investing is like planting a little apple tree. You’re doing the hard work by planting it in good soil now, then you can sit back and watch it grow. Enjoy the apples. Spit out the pips.

Scott.

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Stoned on Weed Stocks

Do you know what is happening with the medical cannabis companies? I had shares in AC8 and CGB and both have been delisted. Others are only worth 1/100th what I paid for them! Should I be freaking out?

Hi Scott,
 
Do you know what is happening with the medical cannabis companies? I had shares in AC8 and CGB and both have been delisted. Others are only worth 1/100th what I paid for them! Should I be freaking out?
 
Andrew

 
Hey Andrew,
 
Dude, it sounds like you’ve been well and truly smoked.
 
A few years ago it felt like everyone was getting high on cannabis stocks. I vividly remember a mate of mine – a comedian – trying super-hard to persuade me to have a toke on his favourite pot stock.
 
No joke!
 
Now I don’t doubt for one second that there’s a huge market for medicinal marijuana, as well as for plain old Mary Jane. Case in point: more Americans smoke dope each day than drink alcohol, according to data collected by the National Survey on Drug Use and Health.
 
Still, the reality is that traders blew up the valuations of these start-up businesses way too much. Now the market has come off its high, and there are a lot of marginal businesses that aren’t worth anything like the prices investors paid for them in the boom.
 
Should you be freaking out?
 
I think the time to freak out was a long time ago. I’ll leave the rest to you, Scooby-Doo.

Scott.

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Investing (shares), Shares, Crash Scott Pape Investing (shares), Shares, Crash Scott Pape

Why is the smartest investor in the world ... selling?

Strap yourself in … the Trump trade is on, and everything is going up.
 
The day after Donald won the election, the US stock market surged 1,500 points – the biggest post-election gain in 128 years.

Strap yourself in … the Trump trade is on, and everything is going up.
 
The day after Donald won the election, the US stock market surged 1,500 points – the biggest post-election gain in 128 years.
 
Even better, Trump says we should be preparing for a ‘golden age’ of investing returns as he slashes corporate taxes and loosens up those annoying rules and regulations for his billionaire buddies.
 
MAGA!
 
However, there’s another billionaire who’s been doing the exact opposite … he’s been selling down his holdings as share prices climb.
 
Even worse, that billionaire just so happens to be none other than Warren Buffett, the greatest investor in history.
 
What’s going on?
 
Well, Buffett famously doesn’t try to time the market, and he pokes fun at anyone who believes they can. However, he does have a valuation yardstick that lets him know when the market is out of whack.
 
It’s called the ‘Buffett Indicator’, and it takes the total capitalisation of US stocks and divides it by US gross domestic product (GDP). The idea being that if stock prices rise faster than the economy grows then it may be a sign of a bubble.
 
The Buffett Indicator flashes warning signs to investors when it surpasses 100%.
 
As it did at the height of the Dot.Com bubble.
 
… and before the Global Financial Crisis.
 
… and at the beginning of the Covid crash.
 
So where is it sitting today?
 
208%.
 
That’s the highest it’s ever been (“HUGGGE” in Donald Trump language).
 
In other words, the Buffett Indicator is screaming “SELL”.
 
And that’s what Buffett has been doing. He’s been stockpiling record amounts of cash, presumably to allow him to once again be “greedy when other people are fearful” (which is how you become one of the richest people on the planet).
 
Okay, so by now I’ve probably thoroughly confused you.
 
Which billionaire should you believe?
 
Well, I’m inclined to believe both of them … though I think Buffett will win out in the end, if for no other reason than he generally does.
 
Let me be clear: stocks could (and probably will) rise from here.
 
However, in the long run share prices always revert to their long-term averages, which means there’s a possibility that returns over the next 10 years are not as likely to be as good as those of the last decade.
 
Right now, few investors are thinking about what may be lurking around the corner.
 
 Case in point: The share market is not only at record highs, but the latest US Consumer Confidence figures show that investors strongly believe that stocks will continue powering ahead. In fact, investors haven’t been this confident that stocks are a no-brainer since (checks notes) …
 
 … since 1987, when stocks savagely plummeted 25% in a single day.
 
Still, as I said a few weeks ago, history has proven that it doesn’t matter who is in the White House. What matters is that you hold through both the good ride (like today) and the inevitable crash.
 
 Buckle up!
 
 Tread Your Own Path!

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You’re Telling me NOT to Invest in the Stock Market?

I’m 50 years old and confused. You recently said: “Don’t save up a deposit in the share market; instead park that money in an online saver or term deposit”. But isn’t the point of investing in shares that you can have the financial freedom to do what you want, like buy a dream house?

Scott,
 
I’m 50 years old and confused. You recently said: “Don’t save up a deposit in the share market; instead park that money in an online saver or term deposit”. But isn’t the point of investing in shares that you can have the financial freedom to do what you want, like buy a dream house?
 
Barry


Hi Barry,

How would you feel if after years of saving you found your dream home to buy … and that same day the share market fell and wiped out 25% of your deposit savings?
 
You’d be pretty bummed, I’d reckon.
 
I’m not saying that’s going to happen to you, but I am saying that it’s happened at least once before.
 
That’s why the Barefoot Steps are very clear: until you own a home, the majority of your long-term investments should be via your super. In other words, save for your deposit in a high-interest online saver or a term deposit – not in shares.

Scott.

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Warren Buffett’s $5.4 BILLION Warning to investors 

Why haven’t you written about your idol Warren Buffett selling BILLIONS of dollars worth of his Bank of America shares? Sounds like he knows something we don’t …

Scott,
 
Why haven’t you written about your idol Warren Buffett selling BILLIONS of dollars worth of his Bank of America shares? Sounds like he knows something we don’t …
 
Chris
 
Hi Chris,
 
So I’m guessing you picked this up from that prestigious financial news digest Daily Mail – which ran this typical Daily Mail headline this week:
 
“Warren Buffett’s $5.4 BILLION warning to investors after he dumps popular stock – and Wall Street better pay attention”
 
“Oh my god”, I thought to myself.
 
Then I spat out my coffee and violently jerked my mouse towards the headline on the screen.
 
DOUBLE-CLICK!
 
However, as I read the actual article, I started frowning. Shockingly, it didn’t live up to the headline.
 
(Does it ever?)
 
Yes, it’s true that Buffett has sold $5.4 billion in Bank of America shares (well, the actual figure is $7 billion, but … close enough).
 
So, is he sending investors a warning?
 
No.
 
How can I be so sure?
 
Well, firstly, because the 94-year-old has said publicly thousands of times over his career:
 
“I have never made any investment decision based on an economic prediction.”
 
So there’s that.

Yet what was missing from the headline was context:
 
His Bank of America sale represents … just 0.7% of Berkshire’s overall assets.
 
(And he still owns a whopping 882 million Bank of America shares, worth US$33.7 billion.) A more likely explanation is that he was taking a profit, given the stock is up 70% since October.
 
Anyway, just for kicks, I decided to get my Daily Mail on and ask ChatGPT to come up with a clickbaity headline on Buffett that investors could actually use.
 
Here’s what it came up with:
 
“Shocking Move: Warren Buffett Bets His Entire Fortune on Just ONE Stock”
 
It’s true.
 
For context, in his will, the 94-year-old billionaire is investing his inheritance into one low-cost index fund.
 
The reason is that Buffett argues that index funds are the best investment for everyone and advises that we should be buying them consistently throughout our lives, saying:
 
“The temptation when you see bad headlines in newspapers is to say, well, maybe I should skip a year or something. Just keep buying.”

Scott.

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Guru Predicts Tesla Shares will Go Up 1,000 per cent

I’m wondering if you have changed your tune on investing in Tesla? Ark Invest guru Cathie Wood has just added to her stake in the company in anticipation of the robot taxi revolution.

Hi Scott,
 
I’m wondering if you have changed your tune on investing in Tesla? Ark Invest guru Cathie Wood has just added to her stake in the company in anticipation of the robot taxi revolution. She forecasts it will be a $10 trillion global market, says Tesla will capture the bulk of that, and predicts it will boost Tesla’s share price tenfold. Elon is obviously a genius and he has said that robot taxis are the future for Tesla. So, given the share price has been whacked recently, is now the time to buy some shares?
 
Trevor
 
Hi Trevor
 
Well, paint me red and call me Randy, but I’m shocked.
 
For years I’ve been highly skeptical that fully autonomous driving would happen.
 
Yet I’m happy to admit I was wrong.
 
Waymo, Google’s robotaxi company, has not only got driverless taxicabs, they’re now taking 100,000 paid rides each week in the US (up from 50,000 a few months ago).
 
Even better, they’re safer than us humanoids. Well, at least the company claims that their robots are much safer: they’ve recorded just 0.4 injury-causing collisions per million miles driven, whereas humans are involved in 2.78 per million miles.
 
So, in major cities at least, it looks like robotaxis really are the next big thing.  
 
Yet it’s here that guru stock picker Cathie Wood and I conk out.  
 
I wouldn’t want Cathie in the cockpit of my portfolio: her Ark Invest has destroyed US$14 billion in wealth over the past decade, according to Morningstar, which tracks her funds.
 
And, looking over her Tesla research, I can understand why. It’s pure spin from a fund manager who is trying to boost the stock price of a company she already owns.  
 
How did she come up with the ‘1,000 per cent’ return assessment?
 
Well, Cathie is predicting that, in less than five years, an unbelievable 90% of Tesla’s future earnings will come from something that doesn’t exist yet:
 
Robotaxis.
 
To be fair, Elon Musk announced that Tesla was on track to have 1 million robot taxis on the road … by 2020.
 
Today?
 
Tesla has zero robotaxis. In fact, the fine print on their website says that Tesla’s Autopilot feature “does not make the vehicle autonomous”.
 
Now I don’t doubt that Tesla will move into robotaxis … but this brings us to the crucial point: 
 
Will these robots make investors rich?
 
On this point, I’m still very sceptical. After all, in China, the main selling point of robotaxis is that they’re cheap as chips. According to a report in the Global Times, base fares start as low as 4 yuan (83 cents), compared with 18 yuan ($3.73) for a taxi driven by a smelly human.

That sounds like a driverless race to the bottom to me.

Scott.

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Artificial Intelligence Stole $300,000 From Me

I have just read your response to Craig regarding Robert Irwin and Trade 6000 Alrex.

Hi Scott,
 
I have just read your response to Craig regarding Robert Irwin and Trade 6000 Alrex. I just want to confirm what you have said and warn Craig to ignore this and any other get-rich-quick offers on the internet. I got sucked in by a deep-fake advertisement of Elon Musk and lost over $300,000 – plus at least five years of my life going through stress with the follow-up scams telling me it could be recovered.   Without going into the whole catastrophe, just be aware that it starts off as such an amazingly easy process – you think to yourself “Why isn’t everyone doing it?” The answer is because not everyone is as gullible as me! Please do not use my name.
 
Anonymous
 
Hi Anonymous,
 
Thanks for sharing.
 
Scam losses are like cockroaches: for every one who admits it, there are hundreds hiding in the dark.
 
Your experience mirrors the hundreds of conversations I’ve had with other victims.
 
Losing the dough is financially shocking and in many cases life-changing.  
 
And, as you’ve said, dealing with the follow-up scams (“We can recover some money for you … if you give us more money”) can go on for years and can give victims PTSD.  
 
(Which is why anyone who has been scammed should go to IDCARE.org – call 1800 595 160 – and have them douse their online profile with hospital-grade bleach.)
 
The money loss is one thing, but by far the biggest losses I see with scam victims is with their mental health. Most of the time their self-confidence is shattered by the experience – their sense of shame and disgust eats away at them.
 
I totally understand why you don’t want to share this experience publicly. However, I’m pleading with you to share it with a counsellor, who can help you move forward. The scammers stole your money – don’t let them rob you of your future.

Scott.

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Investing (shares), Shares, Crash Scott Pape Investing (shares), Shares, Crash Scott Pape

A warning to all investors

Last week I watched my share portfolio get hammered as markets plunged across the globe.
 
And in response I’m doing something I rarely do …  I’m issuing a warning to all investors:  

Last week I watched my share portfolio get hammered as markets plunged across the globe.
 
And in response I’m doing something I rarely do …  I’m issuing a warning to all investors:  
 
It’s time to play dead.
 
Seriously.
 
I’ll have more on the how and the why in a moment, but for now let’s dip our hat to the headline writers, who well and truly earned their peanuts last week. Take this one for example:
 
“Bloodbath strikes Australia’s sharemarket … $102 billion wipeout!”
 
Scary stuff.
 
However, you could rewrite that headline as:
 
“Shares fall to levels not seen since January.”
 
Not so scary.
 
However, if I was allowed to write the headline last week, here’s what I’d have written:
 
“Investors rejoice: shares go on sale!”
 
Most people are still working and are therefore still adding to their superannuation, so they should be cheering on the chance to buy at lower prices.
 
No one ever does, of course. Instead, they totally freak out!
 
And that’s why, many years ago, I made the decision to put my investing plan on autopilot. Each month I automatically buy the same index funds.
 
It’s what I call a ‘one and done’ decision, and it works in my favour: you see, the truth is that, on average, the share market has a drop of 10% or more almost every year. And it’s also true that shares have never failed to recover and hit new highs.
 
So, finally, why do I think it’s time for investors to play dead?
 
Well, Fidelity, one of the biggest asset managers on the planet, did a study on their top-performing client accounts. Guess what they found? Over 10 years, the best returns came from clients who had either forgotten about their investments, or were dead!
 
Tread Your Own Path!

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 If the economy is so screwed … why is the share market at all-time highs?

I was in at the ABC the other day when a young Gen Z bloke who worked there (whose hairdo made him look like one of my alpacas) nailed me with a killer question:

“If the economy is so screwed … why is the share market at all-time highs?”

I was in at the ABC the other day when a young Gen Z bloke who worked there (whose hairdo made him look like one of my alpacas) nailed me with a killer question:

“If the economy is so screwed … why is the share market at all-time highs?”
 
Great question!
 
He’s dead right, of course. For most people the economy is ‘stuffed’. And it’s not just a feeling. Over the last year household incomes in Australia have dropped by more than in almost any other country in the world.
 
Yet, while our politicians are busy flogging the supermarkets with their own $20-a-kilo lettuce leaves, it’s not making much of a difference. Prices keep going up.
 
It’s shocking, and depressing ... and yet it does beg the question:
 
Does the share market know something about the future that we don’t?
 
Nehhhy …  spits Pedro the alpaca.
 
In fact, the share market has predicted nine out of the last two recessions!
 
Seriously, though, the question of why the share market is at record highs right now has a long answer.
 
(Interest rates coming down? Donald Trump going up? Artificial intelligence replacing us all? Who the heck knows? Not this alpaca farmer.)
 
Yet the short answer is actually pretty darn simple:
 
Shares mostly go up.
 
That’s right. Most years shares go up. That’s because the share market is really just a collection of businesses that make a lot of money and compound it over time.
 
The chart below tells the story:

The other thing you should know is that the term ‘record highs’ is a newspaper headline writer’s best friend: each day the share market goes up by even a point, it’s a new record high! The next day it may dribble up another couple of points. Another record high!
 
Now it is true that the share market occasionally crashes (though no-one can accurately predict when it will happen). Yet, as the chart shows, shares always recover.
 
That’s why I told the ABC kid the same thing I tell everyone:
 
Follow the Barefoot Steps, and become an investor.
 
Just don’t wait for the alpaca-lypse!
 
Tread Your Own Path!

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Investing in Nvidia

Given that artificial intelligence is going to change the world, up-end entire industries and render millions of people unemployed (hopefully not me!), I am thinking about investing a large part of my superannuation into Nvidia, the AI chip maker that is dominating the industry.

Hi Scott
 
Given that artificial intelligence is going to change the world, up-end entire industries and render millions of people unemployed (hopefully not me!), I am thinking about investing a large part of my superannuation into Nvidia, the AI chip maker that is dominating the industry. But I just wanted your thoughts first. Do you invest in it?
 
Gary

 
Hi Gary,
 
So we’re currently at peak AI hype.
 
Investors are obsessed with the potential of artificial intelligence … and the chance of making a quick buck has got them treating Nvidia like a casino chip:
 
Last week Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company. This week it suffered the biggest three-day loss of any company in history ($646 billion), according to Bloomberg.
 
Something tells me that the croupier hasn’t yet called “no more bets”.

So would I invest in Nvidia?
 
Yes, I would. In fact I do. I own Nvidia (among hundreds of other stocks) through my international index funds, and that’s enough for me.
 
But would I go balls and all into Nvidia at it these prices?
 
Well, you could ask ChatGPT … but I’m a strong no.

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I Turned $15,000 into $8 Million

I don’t have a money question to shock you, but more a story you’ll probably shake your head at. Many years ago, I turned $15,000 into $3.2 million in crypto. It took just over two years, and when I got there I was clueless as to what to do with that much money. I had every opportunity to turn it into real goods and services here in country Victoria.

Hi Scott,

I don’t have a money question to shock you, but more a story you’ll probably shake your head at. Many years ago, I turned $15,000 into $3.2 million in crypto. It took just over two years, and when I got there I was clueless as to what to do with that much money. I had every opportunity to turn it into real goods and services here in country Victoria. But, because it was the start of a bull run and YouTubers were saying it was going to go way higher, I held on to make more money. In fact, I locked the funds away in a smart contract where I could not access them.

Then the ride really began. The feeling was incomprehensible when it hit $8 million … saddening back at $6 million … sickening at $4 million … total denial at $1 million … and I stopped looking below $500,000. I felt embarrassed. Ashamed. I went on an emotional rollercoaster I never knew existed.

Over time I forgave myself for not being content with $3.2 million and for getting caught up in FOMO. Today, I rarely recommend crypto to people I know. I feel like my experience is similar to the time I got pummelled by the ocean thinking I was better in the surf than I actually was.

John


Hey John,

As they say in therapy, thank you for sharing.

It shows real insight and wisdom that you were able to forgive yourself.

So here’s another way to think about it: if you wrote to me saying you’d turned $15,000 into $200,000 (or however much the crypto is worth now), I’d say you were the luckiest man around.

And I’d focus on the big jackpot you’ve got sitting in your lap right now … in 25 years’ time, you’d give up all your money to wake up and be the age you are right now.

It’s time to create your own luck.

Scott.

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Investing (shares) Scott Pape Investing (shares) Scott Pape

How I invest my own money

On Sunday night, after the kids were fast asleep (for the third time), I lay in bed and opened my calendar to check what I had on for the week ahead. And up popped my favourite ‘event’:

“Check your dividends, Big Boy!”

On Sunday night, after the kids were fast asleep (for the third time), I lay in bed and opened my calendar to check what I had on for the week ahead. And up popped my favourite ‘event’:
 
“Check your dividends, Big Boy!”
 
"OH YEAH!" I exclaimed, loud enough to startle my sleeping wife.
 
She squinted at me: “what is it?!”
 
“It’s dividend week!” I told her wide eyed.
 
“You’re … a weirdo,” she sighed, and rolled back over to sleep.
 
One hundred percent, though she knew that when she married me. Yet, I thought you might find it interesting to hear how I invest my money.
 
Let’s get into it.
 
These days I have roughly 95% of my net worth in a handful of low-cost exchange traded funds (ETFs).
 
Which ones?
 
An Aussie shares index fund, and a couple of international shares index funds.
 
That’s it.
 
While I’m classified as a ‘sophisticated investor’ I believe in my bones that keeping things simple is the ultimate high net worth strategy – and one which will deliver higher returns than the vast majority of professional fund managers. Even better, it means I spend as little as four hours a year managing my investments.
 
How?
 
Well, to start off, I don’t have a trading app on my phone.
 
Why not?
 
For much the same reason that I don’t have social media apps on my phone: when I’m on the throne, the only thing I want to be scrolling is toilet paper, not TikTok.
 
I don’t want to check my share prices every day, or even every week. It’s a trap that leads to stress, and overtrading, and ultimately, to flushing your returns down the toilet.
 
Here’s what I do instead:
 
I have all my investments on autopilot, automatically buying a set dollar amount of the above funds each month. (It used to be expensive to do this, but today you can trade for a few bucks, or in some cases for free.) 
 
When you buy, you can google their historical payout dates and put them in your calendar, like I do. And that means I check my share prices just four times a year … like this week when my dividends come through. That way you can do something more productive with your time … even scrolling TikTok on the tot! 
 
Tread Your Own Path!

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