by Scott Pape |June 18th 2010
Update: The research is based on post codes. The suburbs were chosen as a default, however any one post code can have five or six suburbs. This is where the confusion lies. However, the post code research is absolutely correct.
Despite owning property, I haven’t seen value for a number of years. Yet lately I’ve been doing some preliminary research – in readiness should the market go south as a result of higher interest rates.
Today, I’ve got a real treat for you.
This week I asked my mate, real estate guru Louis Christopher of SQM research to scour the country and dig out the suburbs that have the most properties that have been sitting unsold for longer than 60 days.
Why would I want to know the suburbs that have the most stale for sale properties? Because there are bound to be motivated sellers.
Take the Queensland suburb of Hervey Bay, which according to Christopher has a massive 2,239 homes that have sat unsold for longer than 60 days; one high end property has been reduced from $2.5 million to $1.6 million…and is still sitting there.
Here’s the top 20 properties….
| Postcode | # of properties on market over 60 days | Location |
| 4184 | 1197 | KARRAGARRA ISLAND, QLD |
| 4655 | 1163 | HERVEY BAY, QLD |
| 2539 | 717 | BAWLEY POINT, NSW (near Nowra) |
| 2536 | 653 | BATEMANS BAY, NSW |
| 6210 | 607 | MANDURAH, WA |
| 2540 | 597 | BEECROFT PENINSULA, NSW |
| 2450 | 570 | COFFS HARBOUR, NSW |
| 2428 | 464 | FORSTER, NSW |
| 2340 | 430 | TAMWORTH, NSW |
| 4670 | 412 | BUNDABERG, QLD |
| 2430 | 399 | TAREE, NSW |
| 6280 | 399 | BUSSELTON, WA |
| 4217 | 397 | GOLD COAST, QLD |
| 2580 | 395 | BANNABY, NSW |
| 2460 | 393 | GRAFTON, NSW |
| 2800 | 378 | BOREE, NSW |
| 2870 | 375 | PARKES, NSW |
| 4212 | 356 | SANCTUARY COVE, QLD |
| 2577 | 351 | AVOCA, NSW |
| 5607 | 344 | VENUS BAY, SA |
For more info check out – www.sqmresearch.com.au
Photo: http://www.nhsbenchmarking.nhs.uk/images
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18 comments
Sign of things to come.
I wonder what the Median point is in regards to this list… or was that Mean… no hiding with Stats trickery here!
It looks like a few people are learning that property is not worth what you want to sell it for, its only worth what someone is willing to buy it for.
Sadly I believe this is just the beginning.
It really pays to do your research. Venus Bay in SA has 6 properties for sale (2 being land) and the average price is $400,000 for a shack.
Never heard of Venus Bay, neither have I and I have lived in SA all my life – It is located half way between Adelaide and the WA border. It is right on the coast but I think research would say there is not a lot of employment nearby that would a $400,000 mortgage.
Perhaps Venus Bay belongs on the housing bubble list as way over priced?
I notice there's no towns in Victoria on the list. What does this mean for people trying to buy in VIC? I think it means not enough houses for those looking to buy.
Buggar! And I'm looking to buy.
Venus Bay? 344 properties? A quick search on realestate.com.au lists only 8 properties for sale in Venus Bay…. What am I missing?
The thing I find most strange is that the two places in WA, Mandurah and Busselton, were two of the fastest growing suburban locations IN AUSTRALIA prior to the GFC. Maybe we shouldn't be surprised…
Housing prices won't drop. Even in booms some suburbs get hit hard. Its about the quality of your property not market influences. If housing prices fall like some alarmists are saying, property will therefore become afforable to people who can't afford to buy a house. This will never happen! how can housing suddenly become affordable, it won't, it never has and never will.
I think that the fact that some people are bringing into question these stats, might require some clarification from the issuer of them
P.S. check this out for information that makes sense about why Negative Gearing and an Aussie Fail in the making… just awaiting that day of reckoning!
And this guy works for an Investment Bank in Australia – read it an weep property speculators and spruikers!
The day of reckoning approaches for lambs and wolves.
http://www.unconventionaleconomist.com/2010/06/...
I cannot comment on all areas, however it does appear that the locations listed for QLD are regions that are heavily reliant on a particular industry, i.e. Gold Coast and Sanctuary Cove (bascially the same region) are reliant on tourism, Hervey Bay is reliant on the fishing industry, etc. If any one of these industries experiences a downturn, so to will the property market. You would be silly to invest in an area that is over-reliant on one industry type anyway.
4217 – Is the post code for Surfers Paradise, one suburb on the Gold Coast, but there are thousands of units so the number of properties for sale more than 60 days doesn't seem particularly high for one very crowded postcode. Houses in the postcode take in areas like Isle of Capri and they are generally snapped up.
People are arguing about numbers but the evidence in my area is the booming greater Canberra market has come off the boil in a dramatic way.
Last Feb when I bought in my suburb there was 10 2 bedroom places to chose from today there is 67. That alone may not indicate the market is tipping but the greater Canberra market is investor dominated.
Today the 5th unit in my block of flats was listed. The place is quite, clean, spacious and has a milkbar/general store 5 houses away. 20 minutes to the centre of Canberra, 20 minute walk to the suburban shops. What I consider to be a perfect location. However 1/5th of all units are currently on the market and as an owner occupier I know they are all rentals that are currently sitting vacant.
If the rest of Canberra is like my suburb then there are a lot of investors feeling the hurt and a lot of investors that are trying to sell up.
Interesting research. I live on Karragarra Island, which you say has a staggering 1197 properties that have been on the market for over 60 days.
There are around only 125 residents on this tiny 2.5km long tropical paradise and perhaps 50 houses.
Maybe your researcher needs to re-check his figures.
Regards,
Greg
maybe try look at the rest of the WORLD property goes up…goes down…remains flat and so on to say it never goes down is hysterical ……and knieve !
I dont see any Victorian postcodes there Scott. Sadly property prices only seem to be on the rise here. My friend recently bought a property in Ballarat, and now has an hour commute to her job in South Melbourne. I just dont see myself owning property for the forseeable future.
Hey guys,
The research is based on postcode and not the name of the actual suburb. That’s where some of the confusion may have come from because it’s just picked one suburb out of many. However, if you look at the postcode, you’ll see that it can have as many as 10 different suburbs included within it.
As a property investor in Melbourne who lives of rental. Scott if prices fall as Harry Dent. & others predict how do you see rental returns, will they still incease with demand???
Notice, No Postcodes for Melbourne!!